Sunday, January 25, 2015


The Pilot Shortage in the United States is a heavily debated issue.  This debate not only takes place between key players in the aviation industry but also between analysts outside of the aviation industry. While most analysts may argue that this most recent boom in hiring can be attributed to many different factors there are some who still believe that this increase in hiring is just the industry’s way to return to a normal stable work force. Over the past decade or so the travel and aviation industry has struggled and has laid off thousands of pilots and employees.  One of these events was the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center in New York. These attacks increased Americans fear of Flying and reduced the customers for the airlines causing them to cut flights and jobs for thousands of pilots.

            With all the obstacles that the airline industry has overcome in the past decade there are more huddles that have developed. The Federal Aviation Administration has recent rewritten the regulations regarding commercial pilots. These regulation put greater restriction on how long a pilot can fly for and how many hours they can be on duty. This reduction in the pilot’s allowable working hours requires the airline to hire more pilots to cover the scheduled flights they have in place. The Federal Aviation Administration has also raised the requirement for the number of hours a pilot must obtain to be able to obtain an ATP. This has increased the training time a pilot must go through by almost three fold. Not only does this delay the hiring of those piloting into the commercial airline but in also increase the cost of training of those pilots. With the reduction of wages that the pilots took to keep jobs during this slump the return on investment is just not there to entice young adults into a career in the aviation industry. Lastly the average age of airline pilots is soaring this is a problem since there is a mandatory retiring age of 65 years old for airline pilots. This tied with the reduced pool of pilots in training adds up to a severe pilot shortage.

            After 9/11 the major air carriers were grounded this coupled with the nation’s increased fear of flying due to the possibility of more attacks created a major economic impact. Gabi Loagan stated that the total initial economic impact was a “6 percent reduction in passenger volume across the board, with a 9 percent reduction in the nation's busiest airports, totaling a nearly $1 billion loss for the airline industry” in her article in USA today. (Logan) She goes on to say “As a result of the massive financial losses due to lack of passenger demand, canceled flights and increased expenditures for security, even airlines that did not have prior financial issues were forced to renegotiate labor contracts and lay off high numbers of employees, such as the 7,000 employees laid off by American Airlines.” (Logan) Most opponents of the pilot shortage debate will simply say that the increase of hiring that we are seeing now is just the aviation industry finally rebounding. They also say that these pilots that were initially laid off are still out there and are the one being rehired today. This is simply not the case “a record 738 million airline passengers flew in 2005, up 10 percent from the previous record set in 2000. The first seven months of this year have seen 324 million passengers, off only 1.5 percent from the year-ago pace, and miles flown is actually up a bit.”(Isidore, 2006) As you can see the attacks on September 11 devastated the airline industry causing a massive lose in revenue and a large percentage of the workforce laid off but the aviation industry bounced back and returned to pre 9/11 status in a matter of a few years.

            The recession is another factor that caused the airlines to lose revenue over the past few years.  Tim Winship reported in a 2010 article that “As a group, five of the nine largest U.S. airlines posted 2009 losses totaling almost $4 billion. American, which lost $1.5 billion in 2009 and $2.1 billion the year before.” (Winship, 2010) Although most will again say that we are still rebounding from this recession it is simple not the case.  Martin wrote that in 2013 “The profits come on $199.7 billion in operating revenues for the nation's top 26 airlines, compared with $156 billion for 2012, according to the federal Bureau of Transportation Statistic”.( Martin,2014) Also the major airline did not lay off a large sum or pilots like they did during the downturn after the 9/11 attacks. Most of the cut pilot positions were simple from retired pilots. These profit margin numbers are also greater than the pre 2001 numbers so we can see the airline industry is actually growing.

            There are a few facts that the opposition cannot dispute. The airlines in the United States are hiring and are hiring at a faster rate than ever before.  “American has said it expects to need to hire 1,500 new pilots over the next five years to make up for retirements, training demands and its fleet renewal” states Carey and Nicas in a recent article examining the shortage. (2014) As we know this hiring can be attributed one of the major factors we are seeing today is retirements. During the last decade the airlines have not been acquiring new pilots. Since this was the case there have not been large numbers seeking training due to the lack of jobs. This has reduced the number of pilots to take the place of those pilots reaching the mandatory retirement age. To compound this problem the FAA just increased the mandatory minimum of flight hours required to be a pilot in command of a scheduled airline to 1,500 hours from the previous no required minimum. This new regulation has just increased the training time for a pilot by three fold in order for them to take the place of the retiring pilots that are in the air right now. So with the mass of retiring pilots and the increased training time which will delay the current pilots in training from taking those seats it is hard to say that we will not see a pilot shortage. Its also easy to see why Justin Bachman of Bloomberg reported that “One of the largest regionals, Republic Airways Holdings (RJET), plans to stop flying 27 of its 41 Embraer (ERJ) 50-seat jets because of the pilot shortage”(2014).

            Finally one of the main reason there is a pilot shortage is the low wages for entry level positions in the airline industry. Most starting pilots make on average $21,000.00 a year.  This is not a lot when you considered the high cost of training. Matthew C. Klein a writer for Bloomberg explains “ Although many commercial airline pilots get their experience and training in the military, those who don’t have to pay as much as $100,000 to get the required education and flying time -- an investment that can't be justified when the wages for new workers are so low” (2014).  One thing is for sure that I will graduation Eastern Michigan University with a total educational debt of over $120,000.00 which does not include the cost of living for the 4 years of school and flight training. After my graduation I will have three choices available to me become a flight instructor and earn 15 dollars an hour while  gaining my last 650 hours required to get a first officer job at a regional airline. That doesn’t seem like a bad choice but when you figure I will start out making $21,000.00 a year as a first officer and it will take 4-10 year or so to break the $75,000.00 mark it is not a very enticing choice. My other option is to fly for a cargo company which I would make $30,000.00 or so then take a pay cut to work at a regional airline or stay at a cargo carrier and top out at the $60,0000.00 range for my salary. Or lastly take a job at a corporate jet company and start out with a salary of $75,000 to $100,000 and end up with a final salary in the middle to upper six figure range. The final option is the best and most viable option since my educational debt will need to be paid sooner rather than later. These options only increase the pilot shortage even more with more and more new pilots staying away from the airlines to seek higher paying job elsewhere.

            No matter how you look at the situation there is only one clear answer. We are currently experiencing a pilot shortage that will only get worse in the next few years. With the cost of training increasing along with the required hours to be able to fly airliners more and more young adults are either seeking careers outside of the aviation industry or at least outside of the airlines. This coupled with the increasing amount of retiring pilots and the lack of qualified pilots due to years of the industry not hiring has all added up to a major pilot shortage here in the United States.

 

Additional questions

The RAA Regional Airline Association (RAA) and Airline Pilots Association (ALPA) act as the unions for the Regional airline industry. Although ALPA focuses its efforts on pilots RAA represent the rest of the industry.  

1.      Professionalism striving to be at the to of your profession in and out of the work place. It not only includes your skills but also how you act and how to interact with others  in and out of the workplace.

2.      The Captain repeatedly failed check rides. By not studying the pilot failed to hone his skills. There was also a lack of professionalism on management’s side by not sufficiently preparing or requiring their pilots to be proficient in their skill. Management should have seen that there was something amiss when someone repeatedly fails examinations but they continued to overlook it and let him represent the company.

3.      See above essay

4.      There are many ways I can expand my professionalism. First by attending conferences and seminars so that I may further my knowledge of the aviation industry. Secondly I will always keep my skills sharp not only in the aircraft I fly everyday but by continuing to get additional rates and training that are not required by my job.

References

Bachman, J. (2014, February 11). Pilot Shortage: Regional Airlines Are Cutting Flights - Businessweek. Retrieved July 13, 2014, from http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-02-11/yes-theres-a-pilot-shortage-salaries-start-at-21-000

Carey, S., & Nicas, J. (2014, February 3). Airline-Pilot Shortage Arrives Ahead of Schedule - WSJ. Retrieved July 13, 2014, from http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304851104579361320202756500

Isidore, C. (2006, September 8). Airlines would have changed, with or without 9/11 attacks - Sep. 8, 2006. Retrieved August 10, 2014, from http://money.cnn.com/2006/09/08/news/companies/airlines_sept11/index.htm

Kline, M. (2014, February 12). Pilot Shortage Is an Airline Fairy Tale - Bloomberg View. Retrieved July 13, 2014, from http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-02-12/pilot-shortage-is-an-airline-fairy-tale

Logan, G. (n.d.). The Effects of 9/11 on the Airline Industry | USA Today. Retrieved August 10, 2014, from http://traveltips.usatoday.com/effects-911-airline-industry-63890.html

Martin, H. (2014, May 5). Airline profits soar to $12.7 billion - LA Times. Retrieved August 10, 2014, from http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-mo-airline-profits-skyrocket-20140505-story.html

Winship, T. (2010, April 30). The Recession Hit the Airlines Hard, and Passengers Harder: Travelers Suffer from Profitability Drive - ABC News. Retrieved August 10, 2014, from http://abcnews.go.com/Travel/recession-hit-airlines-hardand-passengers-harder-travelers-suffer/story?id=10497972

6 comments:

  1. Interesting article, not much new but a good recap. Historically, before the regional airlines grew rapidly in the last decade, pilots needed around 5000-hours before they would even be considered for hire at the airlines. 1000-hours is hardly a high standard. Longer rest periods are also something that was historically common by union contracts, before the pilot unions were decimated and de-fanged as a result of Congress adding Section 159a to the Railway Labor Act, effectively ending their right to labor action. This act tilted the balance of power decisively and permanently in favor of airline management in negotiations with labor. The result has been severe cuts in compensation and quality of work life, and cuts in expensive safety standards long mandated by unions. The FAA acknowledged the safety problems, but did nothing about them until Congress, motivated by pressure from families of victims of the Colgan Air crash, forced the FAA to make specific changes.

    Yes, there is certainly a pilot shortage coming, because young people don't want to do what current airline pilots do. Most U.S. flight schools are over 90% foreign national students, here on student visas and destined for overseas airlines. FAA numbers don't differentiate, so their numbers imply we have slightly more than enough students in training to keep U.S. airlines staffed. It isn't true, we don't have enough pilots in training, and we won't. Even a huge pay increase won't attract students, because it is obvious we won't employ nearly as many pilots when automation starts eliminating them in fifteen to twenty years. That seems like a long way off to some, but a new pilot like you might be a junior captain at a major airline about then, if the airline industry isn't eliminating pilots.

    A serious pilot shortage is coming, and it will put a lot of pressure on airline suppliers to provide the automation to reduce airline need for pilots. It will also put a lot of pressure on Congress to allow airlines to lower various safety standards, and replace qualified second pilots with MPL pilots or no pilots, and more automation. This will happen, and it won't be good for the pilots who remain.

    Good luck, I'll be rooting for you from my retirement shanty.

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  2. There are many parts and elements related to the pilot shortage that play a factor cumulatively. Two good points that are not usually discussed are the recession and the significance of 9/11 that caused the airlines to lose revenue.

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  3. Nate, as a fourth option for your career there is always oversea jobs to take. Your situation is a grim reality of what is happening to aviation students across the country. Anyone interested in becoming a pilot should read this post and seriously consider their options.

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  4. It's interesting to see a perspective on how a shortage of pilots is caused by 9/11 and economic times. It seems so obvious of a cause, yet already factored into the aviation industry equation in which we tend not to think about those reasons too much, just because they do seem to be an obvious factor.

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  5. I like how you break down the educational figures. This puts it into perspective how little regional pilots get paid when considering the people looking to get into those positions are likely coming with large amounts of student loans. It shows how it really isn't enough to live on coming out of college with so much debt.

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  6. I liked how you debunked the myth that there are a plethora of qualified pilots out in the world that are waiting to get jobs. That idea is only coming from the lips of a few hundred furloughed pilots. The growth in the industry and the rise in profits that you backed up with data served you're point well.

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